Friday, September 11, 2009

In this pic notice the PLOD line in deep blue at 151.89.

In trading price action, a strong rule or condition to try and follow is when price breaks out of the previous days high or low level and then retests it, often times a strong trend will follow.
An example of how important it is to look at the prior pivot levels.

This is the first setup I'm seeing in the opening of London session. Short EU

Thursday, September 10, 2009

We are looking at a retest of the previous day high and Weekly R3 level. This is in confluence with a minor level, 27.2 PDMM projected from the CLOD. If this level at 1.4600 holds, 1.4500 is monthly R1. There is a good chance of price hitting this before any more continuation long.
This shows the 50 PWMM being hit projected off of the CLOW.
Price is just short of the 50/62 PDMM zone. This can often be the case when a prior day's level is closer to the start. This is seen with the pivot level from the previous day. You should never ignore levels like this from the previous day as often times not all pending orders may not have been canceled at the end of the day.
Setup that has already been hit at 50 PDMM.
This a look at a range chart. This would be much easier to create trading signals from over a 1min chart.
Bouncing the inner fib levels. Typical of an inside day.
Short target zone at 50 PDMM is hit with a little retracement before the final point is hit at 61.8 PDMM projected from CHOD. Price reversed at this level as we so often see. This takes us to the next setup long and the 100 PDMM projected from the CLOD is hit and slightly exceeded.
Target hit.
Price has moved a little higher than the level the fib pivot was applied to. I have moved the PDMM to the new high and showing new targets. I like the area of confluence between Daily S1, Weekly R2 and the 88.6 retracement. Lets see how this plays out during London.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Fib pivots are applied and looking to 50/62 zone or conflunece of weekly R2 and daily S1.
The first signal of the day is a long after the new day and price hits the 50 PDMM. Price retraces back to the PDC and off again long to the 50 PDMM. This time it struggles and breaks into the 50/62 zone. I often look for reversal signs here. If price breaks this zone I look for 100 PDMM as a target or price targets that are still in play from the previous day. In this instance price goes to the previous day's R2. In trading price action I see this all the time as orders that are placed on one day may not be hit until the next day if they were not cancelled.
In this 15Min chart you see a dbl top that is against Res levels seen on the 4Hr chart from the weekly fib pivots.

For this day we see a rejection of the 38.2 PDMM projected from the high prior to the New York session. This fib is often hit after a day that has a trading range that is above the average trading range. The 38.2 was also in confluence with the daily pivot.

When a fib pivot is applied to the CLOD that is found at the 38.2 PDMM, price moves long up to the 50 PDMM projected from this CLOD. It is important that you continue to move the fib pivots forward to the days current highs or lows so that new targets are established as the market moves forward.
We are now seeing a dbl top against 61.8 PWMM projected from the PWC. This is in confluence with the 88.6 PWMM projected from the CLOW.

Is this a sign that we may be seeing a retracement from the recent up swing in price?
Here we have price hitting the 61.8 PDMM level as it is projected from the LOD. This level was also in confluence with the 150 PWMM that can be seen on the 4Hr chart.

Key price action in the retracement to the 50% daily range which is also confluence to the YHOD.

This is a very good example of how you can trade from price level to price level with extremely high rates of probability.
In this 4Hr chart we see the weekly pivots and the fib pivot levels. Price found Res at the 150 PWMM level and projected from the previous week's close level. This level was also in confluence with the 61.8 PDMM that can be seen on the 15min chart.

Nice to see this kind of confluence.
You can see in this shot that price hit the initial target zone of 50/62. This is a great place for taking part off the table and looking for a reversal area. This level is very strong as S&R when the previous day had an above average range for that pair.

This is a 15 min chart showing the 61.8 level being a rejecting point for a move higher today

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

The August 100 PMMM level was hit meaning another successful setup that has played out.

The new monthly levels for Sept are show with targets.
New setup for GY. Watch the 50/61.8 zone as its in confluence with YHOD.
38.2 retracement of the daily low to high.
This is a short listing of some of the terminology that is used to define the conditions.

MM: Measured Move, this is the high to low range for a specific time period.
PDMM: Previous Day's Measured Move
PWMM: Previous Week's Measured Move
PMMM: Previous Month's Measured Move

PDC: Previous Day's Close
PWC: Previous Week's Close
PMC: Previous Month's Close

YHOD: Yesterday's High Of the Day
YLOD: Yesterday's Low Of the Day
CHOD: Current Day's High
CLOD: Current Day's Low
CHOW:  Current Week's High
CLOW: Current Week's Low
CHOM: Current Month's High
CLOM: Current Month's Low

Looking at the monthly fib pivots here we have the 50 PMMM projected from previous months close being hit. This is in confluence with the 88.6 PMMM projected from the monthly low.
In this pic you see the 61.8 PMMM level hit when the fibs are applied to the previous monthly close. Next thing to look at is that 88.6 PMMM from the monthly low has been hit.